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Having scored nine times in his first seven Premier League games, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has started the season with incredible momentum.

Although this isn't his strongest opening to a term - he registered 11 strikes in his opening seven appearances in the 2022-23 season and double digits last year - it still puts him with a three-goal lead in the initial race for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

What makes this zero of his nine conversions have been spot-kicks renders it particularly impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Certainly, injury could definitively intervene in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two key factors why Haaland is so heavily favored for the honor so early in the season.

To begin with, the number of goals he has thus far netted - and, just as importantly, the total and standard of scoring opportunities he's creating.

And second, the sluggish beginning his usual rivals for the award have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A player's expected goals number (xG) represents how many goals a top-flight footballer has historically scored from the total and standard of scoring situations he's encountered.

This isn't a figure arbitrarily chosen by statistics boffins, but by Premier League history.

When examining at footballers' expected goals in the Premier League so far this season from normal play, the Scandinavian attacker is obtaining considerably more good opportunities to find the net than anyone else.

Actually, even if Haaland were no better at finishing chances than every other footballer in the league, he would nonetheless have netted over double the amount goals as the remainder of the league.

Opportunity Analysis

This is illustrated by analyzing the quantity and caliber of scoring situations that players have had in the top flight so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this term, twelve additional compared to any other player.

Interestingly, this is not particularly unusual for him - he had actually taken more open-play attempts at this juncture in the previous two campaigns (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in 2024-25).

What's particularly unprecedented even for him is the quality of chances he has had this campaign. His attempts have had an chance quality metric of an average of 0.27.

This statistic indicates is that attackers have typically netted the shots he has had at a 27% success ratio.

Regarding attackers registering at least 10 shots, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to convert per attempt - because of a several close-range conversions against West Ham United and Brighton.

The Norwegian's expected goals of 0.27 is significantly greater than the 0.17 xG rating per attempt he had at the start of last season.

To summarize, the chances he has had in this campaign have been significantly more straightforward to score from in a reorganised City team than those at the opening of last term.

Historical Comparison

Opening a term so impressively is, as noted earlier, not unusual for Haaland. After seven games last campaign he had scored 10 goals - four more than anyone else and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Anfield star who won the Golden Boot with twenty-nine strikes, a touchdown more than the City forward.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has registered half as many goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this stage last season.

Indeed this has been the quietest start to a Premier League season the Egyptian attacker has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It's not merely Salah who has begun modestly either. If we look at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last campaign, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the other 10 players collectively so far.

Whether due to physical problems - several key attackers - long-running transfer sagas in one particular striker's situation or simply because their sides have underperformed (several proven attackers), Haaland's probable competitors in the race for the Golden Boot have not fired so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

While Haaland looks the obvious frontrunner for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the Continental scoring award that is presented to the player with the most goals in Europe's top-five leagues?

That race is considerably more open at this early stage because two world-class strikers have also started in superb fashion, with 11 and nine goals respectively.

The reality Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the top chance quality metric of the three without having taken any spot-kicks renders him the likely winner.

Yet given that the English and French stars are two of the best finishers in continental soccer in terms of outperforming their chance quality metrics, the competition remains open.